Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
